“It just seems so insane, based on what he ran on, I mean, this is why a lot of people feel betrayed, right? He ran on no more wars and these stupid senseless wars, and then we have one that we can’t even really clearly define why we did it.”

These are the words of top US conservative influencer, Joe Rogan, whose endorsement of Trump helped him to get elected in 2024.[1]

Whatever the reason that Trump attacked Iran on February 28, most of the US population clearly doesn’t like it; this is unusual in the US for the start of a war. On 12 March 2026, the Washington Post observed, “recent polls… have found Americans opposing U.S. strikes 50 percent to 38 percent, according to a Post average of 10 polls since the war started.”[2] [Emphasis added] That’s an opposition gap of 12%. One month later, by April 10, 2026, the opposition gap was 15%, according to well-known U.S. poll analyst Nate Silver.[3]

Here’s what Trump posted on social media on March 12, nearly two weeks after his surprise attack:

“The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money. BUT, of far greater interest and importance to me, as President, is stopping [sic] an evil Empire, Iran, from having Nuclear Weapons, and destroying the Middle East and, indeed, the World. I won’t ever let that happen!”[4]

Many suspect Trump is not telling the truth on the nuclear weapons issue, that he is using it simply as a cover for something else. There is real evidence for this suspicion. In a 27 February US TV interview, the Omani Foreign Minister, Badr Albusaidi who had been mediating negotiations between Trump’s representatives and the Iran government, said that “a peace deal is within our reach.” Iran will « never, ever have … nuclear material that will create a bomb. » The existing stockpiles of enriched uranium would be « blended to the lowest level possible » and « converted into fuel…[which] will be irreversible, » he insisted. The U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency would have « full access » to Iranian nuclear sites to verify the deal, he said, concluding, « There would be zero accumulation, zero stockpiling, and full verification. »[5] That was on Friday, February 27. The two sides were scheduled to meet again the following Monday. Trump attacked the next day, Saturday, February 28–in the midst of peace negotiations.

On March 17, the sudden resignation of the Trump appointed Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, seriously reinforced the suspicion. His resignation letter said: “I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”[6] Although Sen. Mitch McConnell criticized the “virulent anti-Semitism of his resignation letter,” [7] Kent did throw further, very real, doubt on the supposed nuclear bomb urgency.

Trump’s attack caused the price of oil in the US (WTI, the benchmark) to go up from roughly $65.75 dollars per barrel on February 27, 2026 to $111 on March 20.[8] It then bounced around based on each Trump remark and/or war attack report. By April 11 it had sagged back to the still massively increased price of $95.[9] Bad news for car owners? Yes. But very good news for the frackers—the oil drillers doing hydraulic fracturing–who had bankrolled Trump’s 2024 election campaign to the tune of $75 million, but felt double-crossed as many had to quit fracking due to an oil price below their costs, averaging $55-58 per barrel.[10]

Saudi Arabia, with a break-even cost of no more than $27,[11] had continually pumped more oil, crashing the world oil price. Trump’s War puts his frackers back in the money, reversing who gets crashed.

If this is Trump’s strategy, it is quite simple; the US, with Israel, destroys Iran and lets Iran, in self-defense or retaliation, destroy the other regional oil and natural gas producers. This is certainly what is happening. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas passes. On March 17 an Iranian drone set ablaze a large UAE gas field, the Shah gas project.[12] Then the next day, Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field—it’s major natural gas operation. A few hours later, state-owned QatarEnergy announced that Iran had retaliated by hitting Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, causing “extensive damage.” Most of Qatar’s natural gas, 20% of the world supply, is produced there.[13] Trump then threatened to “massively blow up” the rest of South Pars if Iran attacked Qatar again.[14]

And Trump kept menacing. On March 21, he issued an ultimatum; he would “hit and obliterate” Iran’s electrical power plants if Iran didn’t stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz by the following Monday night. Iran then threatened that if Trump did follow through, the Gulf states would see their energy infrastructure “irreversibly destroyed” and Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely. [15] Brent oil hit $110 per barrel. Then on Monday, Trumps said that his officials and Iran had held “productive conversations” so Iran had another five days to open the Strait of Hormuz. But Iran said that they had not had any discussions with Trump’s negotiators. Brent fell to $103 anyway. The next day, Bloomberg reported evidence of indirect talks,[16] but also of more attacks on Iran and Gulf states’ infrastructure. On April 7, Trump threatened that unless Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz, « a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” This was interpreted by many as threatening nuclear annihilation of Iran, and was too much for Pope Leo, who declared, « Today as we all know there was this threat against all the people of Iran. This is truly unacceptable. » Whether a nuclear threat or not, Trump did threaten to blow up the bridges and other civilian infrastructure.[17] On April 11, negotiations, lasting 20 hours, started in Pakistan between U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and the Iranians. They ended the next day, April 12: No deal.[18]

On April 11, the Financial Times summarized the damage to the world’s second biggest oil producer, Saudi Arabia, so far: “Strikes at the offshore Manifa oilfield and at the Khurais oilfield north of Riyadh reduced production at each site by about 300,000 b/d.”[19] In addition, the Iranians hit the Yanbu East-West oil Pipeline, which runs from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, reducing its 7 million barrels per day capacity by 700,000 barrels. The pipeline had allowed Saudi Arabia to dodge the Iranian blockade at the Strait of Hormuz,[20] by reportedly exporting nearly 5 million barrels per day through the Red Sea. However, the story kept changing by the day. On April 12 Saudi authorities announced that the pipeline had been restored to full capacity, and that production at one of the oil fields had also been fully restored.[21]

As of this writing, April 12, the Strait is still effectively closed, Iranian civilization still exists, and US oil still costs $96. When might Trump’s War end? If Trump’s goal is his often proclaimed “energy dominance,”[22] the war could end, if the Iranians will let him, when Trump thinks a sufficient amount of Persian Gulf oil infrastructure has been destroyed to keep his frackers rich.

Is bailing out his aggrieved frackers Trump’s only possible motive? Maybe not. How about simple whimsy? He gets away with it because his hard core supporters adore him, and his advisers and officials simply say “Yes, Sir.”[23] However, some significant ones are starting to shout No!. One, conservative political activist Tucker Carlson, said the threats to Iran’s civilian infrastructure were “a war crime” and “vile on every level.”[24] Another, recently resigned Republican Congresswoman, and former major Trump supporter, Marjorie Taylor Greene called Trump’s civilization threat “evil and madness,” and called for Trump to be removed from office using a provision in the 25th amendment to the US Constitution. [25]

Besides whimsy, there are other possibilities. How about the Israel issue put front and center by Joe Kent? How about changing the subject from the Epstein scandal, which increasingly dogs Trump–although the truly damaging allegations are so far unproven. How about Trump’s wanting to increase his extraordinarily bad popularity rating, which keeps sliding down? The highly credible Cook Political Report averages 21 reliable polls on a daily basis; it shows that Trump’s disapproval increased from 48.9% on March 1, 2025 to 57.2%, on April 10, 2026.[26] Wars have usually caused the public to “rally ‘round the flag” and thus support the President. So far, this isn’t happening. Maybe it will if Trump sends a ground army in, for example, to grab the enriched uranium. Trump has transported 2300 U.S. Marines, from the Pacific region to near Iran.[27] Then, on March 24, the New York Times reported that he was sending an additional 2,000 paratroopers to the region.[28]

 

How high will the price of oil and gas go?

Bloomberg published an update of various oil traders’ forecasts on March 24: “Goldman Sachs has raised its average forecast for Brent to $85/bbl from $77/bbl previously. Macquarie is calling for a price floor of $85-$90/bbl, with futures potentially reaching $150/bbl by the end of April. Meanwhile, Kpler says that prices could hit $140/bbl within three or four weeks absent any meaningful de-escalation.”[29] So take your pick. Given that the breakeven price for oil for the US frackers is roughly $55-58 (for US benchmark WTI), all forecasts suggest that Trump’s frackers would be either in the money or flat out rich.

Those prices forecasted above by the oil traders are for Brent, the EU benchmark. WTI, the US benchmark, tends to sell for about $3 to $10 less. But for much of April 2026, it has been selling for more. Why? The US is exporting more oil to Asia to make up for the lost oil from the Gulf. In March 2026, 3.9 million barrels per day were exported. But in April 2026, oil research firm Kpler estimates the figure will be 5.2 million barrels per day. A flotilla of 68 empty tankers were powering to the US in the second week in April. The week before Trump’s War, only 24 empty tankers headed to the US.[30]

So, are Trump’s US frackers drilling a lot of new holes? Not so far. The process is expensive and requires planning and considerable logistics. What about expanding the areas to be fracked—which means acquiring the property rights.  Acquisitions of fracking property in the US have more or less stopped since Trump’s War because of the unknown oil price. The Financial Times quoted a corporate lawyer, “Now it’s a matter of ‘OK, what do we price this at? How aggressive can we underwrite this? Are we going to be able to hedge?’”[31]

Liquified natural gas from the Gulf is a different story. Iran has damaged Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, reducing its output of liquefied natural gas by 17% and requiring three to five years to repair, according to the country’s energy minister Saad Al-Kaabi.[32]

Much of the Gulf liquefied natural gas was sold in Asia, so Asian markets for the Gulf gas have already been hit hard, and, according to many accounts, may soon run out of natural gas.

The US has vast amounts of natural gas, much of it flared-off at the oil-fracking well head because the frackers don’t want to invest in pipelines to bring the gas to the closest gas network.

US natural gas is cheap, essentially a by-product of fracking for oil. On 23 March U.S. natural gas sold for $2.90 per Million British Thermal Units. The price the same day in Rotterdam for imported liquefied natural gas was 55 euros per MWh, which works out to about $18 per Million British Thermal Units, i.e., about six times the price of US natural gas. So why don’t the frackers pay for the pipelines to connect to the network so they can liquefy their gas and sell it for a huge profit? There’s no place to liquefy it. According to a standard source, Tradingeconomics.com, “LNG export capacity remains near full utilization, limiting the ability to capitalize further on global supply disruptions.”[33]

By 2031, perhaps five years after Trump’s War, the US is expected to double its current capacity of eight LNG terminals, according to the US’s Energy Information Administration.[34]

But maybe by then demand may have noticeably shrunk. Why?

For the EU, simply compare the price of natural gas in the current crisis to the one connected to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Natural gas prices at Rotterdam then shot up to 339 euros. As we have seen they have hit 55 euros this time. Weather clearly is a factor, but perhaps the major reason in the EU is the significant increase in wind and solar electricity since then. In 2025, more electricity in the EU was produced by wind and solar than by all fossil fuels combined.[35]

Wholesale electricity prices are usually based on the most expensive source of electricity,[36] but there is now so much solar and wind electricity in the EU—by far the cheapest sources[37]–that they often set the price. Gas plants are now often operating only during peak evening hours.[38]

Utilities will get better at dealing with these supply crises—both by installing more wind and solar installations, and by building massive batteries. Since the war began, investors are pouring money into utility scale battery manufacturers—who supply batteries to stabilize the electric grids. The huge battery installations can fill up to 4 hours of electricity gaps produced by the intermittency of wind and solar. As the natural gas shortage has really smacked Asia, one should not be surprised that the major Chinese battery manufacturers are seeing their stock-market shares power up. On March 23, 2026 the Financial Times noted that, since Trump’s War started, battery manufacturer CATL was up 29% in China, Sungrow had jumped up 19%, BYD is up almost 22%. By contrast, the shares of oil companies, which are cashing in on a 47% oil price jump, were up less: 8% for Chevron, 4.7% for ExxonMobil, and 8.3% for Shell. BP had done a bit better, 15.2%.[39]

The shift into using wind and solar to produce electricity, is made even more important by an increasing shift into using electricity—vast numbers of persons are now using Zoom and the internet to work from home, attend university classes, hold virtual business meetings, scan the press, shop, pay bills, deal with corporate and government agencies, send personal correspondence, etc. Packages and meals are delivered by couriers on electric bicycles. EV sales keep growing. Last year, 50% of new cars sold in China were electric. In the EU the figure was 26%, up from 21% in 2022.[40]

Even in the US, where EVs were only 9.7% of new car sales in 2025[41], Trump’s War has pushed customers into the EV salesrooms. According to a top manager of Ignition Dealer Services, a consultancy for car dealerships, the tipping point to make people consider EVs was $4.00 gasoline. On March 14, the average price was $4.29, up 20% since the beginning of the war, two week earlier. Many US families have two cars, so they could keep a gas guzzling SUV or pickup, and have a second, electric, car, for local trips, driving back and forth to work, the supermarket, etc.[42] Whether caused by Trump’s War or not, sales of used EVs in the US increased 29% in February 2026 from the comparable month one year earlier.[43]

So Trump’s war may inadvertently accelerate these sorts of trends. Maybe he’ll finally win the Nobel Peace Prize—Trump’s War may save the world from global warming.

According to TradingEconomics.com,[44] the US produced in 2025 13,655,000 barrels of oil per day, making it the world’s main producer. If Trump’s War continues, over 23 million barrels of oil per day could be taken off the market in the Gulf alone. The country breakdown for 2025: Saudi Arabia, 10,111,000 barrels per day; Iraq, 4,310,000 barrels per day; UAE, 3,390,000 barrels per day; Iran, 3,176,000 barrels per day; Kuwait, 2,580,000 barrels per day.

If there is further war devastation, much of Gulf oil may be permanently off the market, or at least for a long time. If Russian oil continues to be sanctioned, it will at least continue to have complications to reach the market. The US will dominate oil production; the world, at least the rich world, is obviously shifting into renewable energy, even at an accelerating pace as discussed above. Thus, of the main producers, the US may very well become “the last man standing” in the oil business. But, as electrification of everything accelerates, the shift out of fossil fuels also accelerates. This is due to global warming, the fact that renewable energy is far cheaper, and the issue of energy security, made blindingly obvious by Trump’s War. So how long the dubious title of “last man standing” will make much of a difference is an open question. The rich world may be largely getting out of oil, but parts of the less rich world are still going into it. In its most recent report, the International Energy Agency stated, “While heightened uncertainty clouds the outlook, global oil demand is now set to grow by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 2026….”[45]

 

So, if Iran’s attacks in the Gulf make the US the last man standing in the oil business, why is Iran playing into their hands?

The Iranians may be able to start big fires for a long time; their drones cost only about $30,000 each and they are, by aviation standards, primitive. They are propelled by, according to the UK military think tank, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), an engine “used worldwide by aircraft model-makers.”[46]

So they can do a lot of damage, but why are they doing it?

To answer that question, Bloomberg.com did a long interview with Vali Nasr, a well-known expert on Iran based at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.[47] According to Nasr: “Their thinking is that this has to be the last war …. The United States has to pay a high enough cost to lose its appetite for war with Iran.”

But why is Iran attacking the Gulf States? To “raise the cost of supporting the US,” says Nasr.

The ultimate motivation for Iranian attacks was expressed in a lengthy March 12 interview in the Financial Times of Sir Simon Gass, a former British ambassador to Iran and also a former chair of Britain’s Joint Intelligence Committee. Ambassador Gass summed up: The regime “concludes that this is potentially a fight to the death and that therefore they have to use all of the tools at their disposal….”[48]

So, for the Iranian regime, anything goes, and for now, even if the Iranian regime survives, in the oil story, the US frackers seem likely to be the last man standing.

 

[1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/people-feel-betrayed-joe-rogan-163232

[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2026/iran-war-strikes-poll/?itid=hp_most-read_p005_f007

[3] https://www.natesilver.net/p/iran-war-polls-popularity-approval

[4] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-03-12/iran-latest?srnd=homepage-europe

[5] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-iran-deal-within-our-reach-oman-mediator-says/ 1/6

[6] https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/17/politics/joe-kent-resigns-iran-war

[7] https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/17/politics/resignation-joe-kent-trump-iran

[8] https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

[9] https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

[10] https://institut-rousseau.fr/big-oil-renewables-venezuela-oil/

[11] https://institut-rousseau.fr/big-oil-renewables-venezuela-oil/

[12] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-17/uae-gas-field-hit-key-oil-hub-halts-as-energy-attacks-intensify

[13] https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/19/middleeast/iran-qatar-south-pars-gas-field-explainer-intl

[14] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/19/world/middleeast/trump-iran-south-pars-gas-field.html

[15] https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-22-26#cmn1p3z4100003j6trxm9h5mu

[16] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-03-24/iran-war-trump-latest-news-updates-oil-markets?srnd=h

[17] https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/04/07/trump-warns-whole-civilization-will-die-in-iran-if-ultimatum-expires_6752188_4.html

[18] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/04/11/us-iran-islamabad-hormuz-ceasefire/

[19] https://www.ft.com/content/f7e61ecd-59cb-4be0-92c4-94198e60ba76?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[20] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/view-analysts-reactions-attacks-cutting-saudi-oil-output-eastwest-pipeline-flows-2026-04-09/

[21] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-12/saudi-arabia-says-east-west-pipeline-restored-to-full-capacity

[22] https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-unleashing-american-energy-event/

[23] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-21/trump-s-iran-war-drive-exposes-limits-of-yes-sir-cabinet

[24] https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/10/politics/trump-iran-war-maga-media-split

[25] https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/07/politics/25th-amendment-trump-iran-war

[26] https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/cpr-polltracker/trump-trendlines

[27] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/us/politics/marines-iran-war.html

[28] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/us/politics/82nd-airborne-division-iran-troops.html

[29] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-03-24/iran-war-trump-latest-news-updates-oil-markets?srnd=h

[30] https://www.ft.com/content/c7499763-5630-4ab9-9d10-0e22ab88e674?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[31] https://www.ft.com/content/193718a3-5f4f-4a5d-9847-97820d63a546?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[32] https://www.ft.com/content/64c5a600-1fc8-4370-b5d6-8a0bc273a33f?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[33] https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

[34] https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/pennsylvania-oil-gas-drilling-fracking-iran-price-us-jjl2ffhsr

[35] https://institut-rousseau.fr/majors-petrolieres-renouvelables-venezuela/

[36] 4/11/26, Why Investing in Wind and Solar to Avoid Gas Shocks Hasn’t Added Up for Some – The New York Times

[37] https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/levelized-cost-of-energyplus-lcoeplus/

[38] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-17/why-europe-s-power-prices-aren-t-soaring-like-gas

[39] https://www.ft.com/content/b122ca1f-fc99-4749-9764-f1998b84dd07?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[40] https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-ev-leapfrog-how-emerging-markets-are-driving-a-global-ev-boom/

[41] https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-ev-leapfrog-how-emerging-markets-are-driving-a-global-ev-boom/

[42] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-14/iran-war-reignites-ev-interest-in-us-markets?srnd=undefined&sref=jjXJRDFv

[43] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/business/energy-environment/gas-prices-electric-vehicles-iran.html

[44] https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/crude-oil-production

[45] https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026

[46] https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-iranian-made-uavs-technical-profile

[47] https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2026-vali-nasr-weekend-interview/?srnd=homepage-europe&embedded-checkout=true

[48] https://www.ft.com/content/cba7352f-aac0-4a6a-8919-c0597bc94c43?syn-25a6b1a6=1